The media continues to publish polls that assume a turnout completely different from 2016.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos (Aug. 10-11), which has Biden up by 7 points, is no different.
Highlights – Significant undersampling of Republican voters.
Yet in the Aug. 10-11 Reuters/Ipsos poll, the sample size of registered voters is 50% Democrats, and 37% Republican.
When we compare to the turnout numbers in 2016 to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll:
- The Reuters/Ipsos poll undersampled Republicans by 22%.
- The Reuters/Ipsos poll undersampled Democrats by 1%.
If we extrapolate the results based on the a similar turnout to 2016, we find the race a statistical tie for the popular vote.
Bottom line: Most 2020 polls continue to assume a turnout that is more favorable to Democrats vs. 2016. To this date, no poll has explained why they assume a different turnout. It appears they will continue to skew polls results by adjusting the sample pool.
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