With 2,147,288 ballots cast, the GOP leads the early vote in Michigan. 41% GOP to 39% DEM. About 50% of the estimated total votes for 2020 have been cast. In Michigan, you can register and vote the same day, so this is still a close race. Over the past few days, Republicans have stormed the polls and are beginning to take the lead in early voting in several sates. The speed at which the GOP caught up to the Democrats’ early lead has stunned some experts. Republicans were not supposed to catch up to Democrats’ early vote lead in Michigan until election day, under best case scenario.

The sample size of actual ballots cast is significantly larger than any poll. This fact makes this data a better indicator of voting preference. This data does not account for specific demographics or segments of the electorate that still have to vote. In general, though, Republicans are more wary of casting mail-in votes, and are waiting for election day. It’s expected Republicans will cast more ballots on election day. If that assumption is correct, President Trump has the advantage in Wisconsin.

Ballots Cast in Michigan as of 10/27

Source: NBC News.

Youth Vote Against Further Lockdowns

Particularly worrisome for Democrats is the absence of the youth voters (18-29) as a percentage of total voters. Because voting is up 226% from this time in 2016, raw numbers show the youth vote up. In 2020, as a percentage of the electorate, 18-29 year-olds cast only 9% of the total vote. In 2016, they were 21% of the electorate. This data suggests that young people are not showing up at the same rate during this election cycle.

Source: NBC News.

As Democratic strategists pore over early numbers, a clear and unexpected trend is emerging: The lock-downs are suppressing the college vote. Many college social events are tied to campaign events for Democratic candidates. Not this year with COVID-19 lock-downs.

Young voters, fatigued from the lock-down lifestyle, do not want to shut down the country. They are increasingly favoring Trump because the President clearly states he will not shut down the country. They largely agree with the strategy to focus resources and efforts on the vulnerable, but permit most citizens to remain free. Pollsters often engage in deeper discussions with certain demographics outside the normal questions. In these discussions, young voters often cite President Trump’s oft repeated phrase: “The cure can’t be worse than the disease.”

Lastly, a general complacency with college-age Democrats has gripped college campuses. As it turns out, many college outreach initiatives have been cancelled. Some of these events include virtual rallies, voting caravans and door-to-door canvassing. From our interview with a few organizers in the upper-Midwest, these cancellations are due to Biden’s ‘huge lead’ and concerns over social distancing. “Why risk it, when the polls say he’s clearly going to win.” The result? College students have not turned out to vote, yet. It’s not clear if they will turn out.

Polls Appear To Be Wrong

Republicans are expected to have a swell of voters cast ballots, as we approach November 3rd, 2020. In Michigan, this effect may be subdued since so many Republicans have voted early. However, the remaining poll of super-voters in Michigan remains split between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have the clear edge because they are currently up. But the race is far from over.

These early ballot numbers are unexpected because the current aggregate of polls show Biden up 5+ points in Michigan, and the Democrats were supposed to have the clear advantage in early voting. However, almost all polls show a tightening of the race.

However, emerging evidence suggests that Trump supporters do not trust polls, and therefore, do not take their calls — especially when it requires a time commitment of at least twenty minutes.

While it appears that President Trump is on the cusp of victory in Michigan, this can only happen if Republicans continue to show up with the same vigor as they have up until this point. In other words, Trump has a very good chance of winning Michigan–about 80%–if Republicans do not get complacent.

Join the Conversation


  1. Are you guys stupid? The nbc data is incorrect. Apparently the chart you are seeing is the same as the chart for mail in ballots requested. Target smart has different numbers showing we are lagging

    1. No, you are wrong. The reason why people are getting that confused is because Michigan mailed a ballot to every single voter. So the denominators for both requested and returned are the same in the returned and requested voter file – since every voter should have a ballot. This is confusing a lot of people. But, please remember, some states this year did mail ballots to everyone.

      Second, the TargetSmart data is actually delayed on the TargetSmart website for state data. They refresh two times a day for the state data on NBC News. So there may be discrepancies between the two, but we verified that the NBC News data is the most up-to-date for state data.

      The TargetSmart website does refresh county-level data multiple times a day. But their state data lags, sometimes for a couple of days, for some reason. But NBC News does have the most up-to-date STATE data.

      Also, a Democratic Poll just found Trump is winning. There are other polls showing Trump winning, but I’m showing a Democratic poll since you seem biased.

      1) Actual ballot data from MICHIGAN confirms Republicans are winning so far.
      2) The latest Democratic polling data confirms Trump is winning in Michigan.
      3) Nationally, the polls are tightening after Trump’s superb debate performance and the actual ballot data AND the latest polls in Michigan reflect this trend.

      The evidence is overwhelming positive for Trump. Don’t doom when there is ample good data to support the case for a Trump win in Michigan.

      1. Kudos on this excellent reply, Evan. I appreciate your detailed and clear response to this sadly uninformed and angry citizen.

      2. NOOooo. I proof checked. You guys are wrong. The NBC targetsmart data is wrong. The real data is on targetsmart.com which shows us losing. Even CottoGottfried agreed the NBC data is incorrect and meant to mislead.

      3. Good job. I think the poll is good news, but honestly, I think Trump will get more than 7 percent of the Mich. Dem votes, they just don’t want to tell a pollster that. I believe we will get 50% more or about 10 percent, especially if a lot of youth and black people vote Trump as compared to normal years. We shall see. Biden is a traitor, I do not understand how he gets one vote, I guess he is close because the Press and Tech giants are suppressing info.

      1. No Trafalgar or Rasmussen polls included the NBC numbers. Why? Claiming the NBC results are correct is laughable.

  2. I don’t want to call anyone names, but really want to understand the data (possible) discrepancy. At this moment, when I check Florida on NBC and TargetSmart, they both list the identical numbers of votes cast thus far, about 5.9M. However, NBC lists the registration of ballots received as 43%D, 36%R. TargetSmart lists 48.1%D, 45.1%R.

    Why the large difference?

  3. Is Data For Progress even a rated poll? Neither RCP nor 538 seems to include them. The fact that they’re a progressive think tank, doesn’t imply that they’re good at polling or that the left should trust their polls.

    As far as Michigan, because as you point out all voters get a mail-in ballot in the mail, one would expect both parties to have high early-voting numbers, and that we wouldn’t see the Democrat/Republican disparity we see in other states where you have to request mail-in ballots.

    Additionally, the Democrat vs Republican numbers tell us nothing about how independents voted. We’d expect almost all people still registered as GOP after 4 years of Trump, to vote Trump. And we’d expect almost all people still registered as Democrat after 4 years of Democrats fighting Trump, to vote Biden. The deciding difference will be in how independents vote.

    And while there may be a “shy Trump voter” effect, that doesn’t guarantee it’s large enough to make up the 6-10 point margins the reputable Michigan polls are estimating.

  4. Oh ok my bad. I want trump to win. I was just worried. Thanks for clarifying

    1. So, the good polls are the ones where Trump is doing well in any given week? And when he’s not doing well in a poll, then by definition that’s not a good poll?

      It’s silly to say that all the polls RCP uses are bad, but a poll by a left-wing think tank not known for polling, is good just because its current results are good for Trump.

      You can almost always find a poll that says your candidate is doing well or at least trending up, but that’s just cherry-picking.

  5. TargetSmart has a higher number of returns than NBC and shows Dems up by 4.8%.

  6. I’m happy to see some realistic reporting finally, so much garbage being spilled out. I think the Dems knew they were going down, so they are propping up all these garbage polls to create a huge reaction from the lunatic leftists who are rioting.

Leave a comment

Leave a Reply Cancel reply