With 1,294,660 ballots cast, the GOP leads the early vote in Wisconsin. 42% GOP to 36% DEM. About 46% of the estimated total votes for 2020 have been cast. In Wisconsin, you can register and vote the same day, so this is still a close race. Over the past few days, Republicans have stormed the polls and are beginning to take the lead in early voting in several sates. The following data is derived from actual ballots cast.
The sample size is larger than any poll, and makes this a more accurate indicator of voting preference. This data does not account for specific demographics or segments of the electorate that still have to vote. In general, though, Republicans are more wary of casting mail-in votes, and are waiting for election day. If that assumption is correct, President Trump has the advantage in Wisconsin.
Warning for DEMs: Youth Vote as a Percentage Collapses
Particularly worrisome for Democrats is the absence of the youth voters (18-29) as a percentage. Because voting is up 309% from this time in 2016, raw numbers show the youth vote up. In 2020, as a percentage of the electorate, 18-29 year olds cast only 5% of the total vote. In 2016, they were 17% of the electorate. This data suggests that young people are not showing up at the same rate.
As Democratic strategists pore over early numbers, a clear and unexpected trend is emerging: The lock-downs are suppressing the college vote. Many college social events are tied to campaign events for Democratic candidates. Not this year with COVID-19 lock-downs.
Also, a general complacency within college-age Democrats of an inevitable Biden win has gripped campuses. As it turns out, many college outreach initiatives have been cancelled. Some of these events include virtual rallies, voting caravans and door-to-door canvassing. From our interview with a few organizers in the upper-Midwest, these cancellations are due to Biden’s ‘huge lead’ and concerns over social distancing. The result? College students have not turned out to vote, yet. It’s not clear if they will turn out.
Polls Appear To Be Wrong
Republicans are expected to have a swell of voters cast ballots, as we approach November 3rd, 2020. In Wisconsin, this effect may be subdued since so many Republicans have voted early. However, the remaining poll of super-voters in Wisconsin remains split between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have the clear edge because they are currently up. But the race is far from over.
These early ballot numbers are unexpected because the current aggregate of polls show Biden up 5+ points and the Democrats were suppose to have the clear advantage in early voting.
However, emerging evidence suggests that Trump supporters do not trust polls, and therefore, do not take their calls — especially when it requires a time commitment of at least twenty minutes.
While it appears that President Trump is on the cusp of victory in Wisconsin, this can only happen if Republicans continue to show up with the same vigor as they have up until this point. In other words, Trump has a very good chance of winning Wisconsin–about 90%–if Republicans do not get complacent.