VIDEO: Comparing Biden’s 2008 DNC speech vs the 2020 DNC speech. Same clichés, promises and buzzwords. He didn’t keep the promises of the 2008 speech, he won’t keep promises in the 2020 speech. https://twitter.com/mbracemoore/status/1297021041445867520 Additional Details: After video was published, Twitter users pounced. They demanded the video be reported for ‘manipulated media.’ But, both 2008 […]
Watch: These trucks were spotted in Wilmington, Delaware with different messages.
Last week’s CNN poll showed a tightening race. Why? The poll did not over-sample Democrats as bad as previous polls. The poll did not under-sample Republicans as bad as previous polls. In short, the sample size almost reflected the turnout ratios of Republican, Democrats and independent voters. So why the sudden improvement in accuracy? Could […]
NBC Tweeted this about AOC’s DNC Speech: AOC says it’s ‘totally false and divisive’ clickbait: https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/icin58/alexandria_ocasiocortez_slams_nbc_news_for/ Here is the speech, you decide: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eht6oIkzkew
For a poll to be predictive, the pollster needs to understand who will show up on election day. Polls that try to predict turnout on Election Day, describe their sample as likely voters. Polls that sample registered or eligible voters are not intentionally predictive. Each Election Year, a significant percentage of registered voters do not […]
Here is the Data–You Decide
The media continues to publish polls that assume a turnout completely different from 2016. The latest CNBC poll (Aug. 12), which has Biden up by 6 points, is no different. Highlights – significant oversampling of younger voters and undersampling of older voters. The CNBC poll oversampled 18-49 year olds by 20%, compared to 2016 turnout.The […]
Below is a statistical visualization of the distance a typical person moves on a daily basis per county. Results show a large reduction in the average person’s movement at the beginning of March and April. As stay-at-home orders eased in May, you can see the movement start up again in some, but not all states. […]