Last week’s CNN poll showed a tightening race. Why? The poll did not over-sample Democrats as bad as previous polls. The poll did not under-sample Republicans as bad as previous polls. In short, the sample size almost reflected the turnout ratios of Republican, Democrats and independent voters. So why the sudden improvement in accuracy? Could […]
Category: BREAKING NEWS 🚨
NBC: AOC ‘Did not endorse Joe Biden’ in shortest speech of the DNC
NBC Tweeted this about AOC’s DNC Speech: AOC says it’s ‘totally false and divisive’ clickbait: https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/icin58/alexandria_ocasiocortez_slams_nbc_news_for/ Here is the speech, you decide: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eht6oIkzkew
FOX NEWS Materially Skews Poll Results by Undersampling Independent Voters
For a poll to be predictive, the pollster needs to understand who will show up on election day. Polls that try to predict turnout on Election Day, describe their sample as likely voters. Polls that sample registered or eligible voters are not intentionally predictive. Each Election Year, a significant percentage of registered voters do not […]
CNBC’s August Poll Not Reflective of Likely Voters? Here is the Data–You Decide
The media continues to publish polls that assume a turnout completely different from 2016. The latest CNBC poll (Aug. 12), which has Biden up by 6 points, is no different. Highlights – significant oversampling of younger voters and undersampling of older voters. The CNBC poll oversampled 18-49 year olds by 20%, compared to 2016 turnout.The […]
Visualization: See How Fast Life Is Returning to Normal After Coronavirus in Each State
Below is a statistical visualization of the distance a typical person moves on a daily basis per county. Results show a large reduction in the average person’s movement at the beginning of March and April. As stay-at-home orders eased in May, you can see the movement start up again in some, but not all states. […]