The media continues to publish polls that assume a turnout completely different from 2016.
The latest CNBC poll (Aug. 12), which has Biden up by 6 points, is no different.
Highlights – significant oversampling of younger voters and undersampling of older voters.
- The CNBC poll oversampled 18-49 year olds by 20%, compared to 2016 turnout.
- The CNBC poll undersampled 50+ year olds by 15%, compared to 2016 turnout.
- The CNBC poll undersampled Republicans by 8%, compared to 2016 turnout.
If we extrapolate the results based on the 2,143 sample size, and adjust CNBC’s own poll numbers to reflect a turnout similar to 2016 — we get a statistical tie.
Biden at 47% in the derived poll results and Trump at 46%.
Bottom line: Most 2020 polls continue to assume a turnout that is significantly more favorable to Democrats vs. 2016. To this date, no poll has explained why they assume a drastically different turnout.
OTHER SKEWED 2020 POLLS: