CNBC’s August Poll Not Reflective of Likely Voters? Here is the Data–You Decide

The media continues to publish polls that assume a turnout completely different from 2016.

The latest CNBC poll (Aug. 12), which has Biden up by 6 points, is no different.

Highlights – significant oversampling of younger voters and undersampling of older voters.

  1. The CNBC poll oversampled 18-49 year olds by 20%, compared to 2016 turnout.
  2. The CNBC poll undersampled 50+ year olds by 15%, compared to 2016 turnout.
  3. The CNBC poll undersampled Republicans by 8%, compared to 2016 turnout.

The over/undersamples are significant because the under 40 group clearly had a preference for Clinton in 2016. While the over 40 group had a clear preference for Trump.

Age2016 Turnout %This Poll %2016 vs 2020 Poll
18-39 YO36%45%20%
40+ YO65%55%-15%

If we extrapolate the results based on the 2,143 sample size, and adjust CNBC’s own poll numbers to reflect a turnout similar to 2016 — we get a statistical tie.

Biden at 47% in the derived poll results and Trump at 46%.

Bottom line: Most 2020 polls continue to assume a turnout that is significantly more favorable to Democrats vs. 2016. To this date, no poll has explained why they assume a drastically different turnout.

When possible, we use the official election results to determine the 2016 turnout math. Otherwise we use CNN for more granular exit poll data.


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    1. perhaps they presume that all the whiny libs who took Hillary’s election for granted have learned their lessons and will be voting for Biden, even if they don’t like him…. and that all the republicans who voted against Hillary will vote against Trump now…

      • Do you think that those who voted for Pres. Trump ,and own stocks and Those who normally vote Dem. But own stocks, Are Stupid? You are obviously Hoping they are!

    2. So more young women will come out for 77 year old joe Biden than Hillary Clinton ? That’s the lie I’m supposed to believe ? Biden will not have a greater youth turnout And possibly worse than Hillary. Biden will not have a better female turnout either.

      And don’t give me that Kamala Bleached My Skin Harris is a draw. She’s monotone boring and uninspiring.

    3. Reply
      Thinker Prime Aug 12 at 7:11 pm

      I used this same sort of analysis in 2016 in the state by state polls, figured out Trump would win, bet heavily on Trump winning and made a great return. The pollsters are not trying to present the truth, they are shills trying to demoralize Trump voters. Yet ironically the Trump voters are incredibly excited about voting for Trump while I have not heard a single one of my Democrat friends excited to vote for Biden. Not one.

    4. Trump is a impeached coward who backs Russia over America. Trump supporters are pathetic, white idiots trying to bring slavery back. It won’t happen! Trump is done, morons.

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