The media continues to publish polls that assume a turnout completely different from 2016.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos (Aug. 10-11), which has Biden up by 7 points, is no different.
Highlights – Significant undersampling of Republican voters.
In 2016, Republicans leaning voters were about 48 percent of the electorate. Democratic leaning voters were about 51 percent.
Yet in the Aug. 10-11 Reuters/Ipsos poll, the sample size of registered voters is 50% Democrats, and 37% Republican.
When we compare to the turnout numbers in 2016 to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll:
- The Reuters/Ipsos poll undersampled Republicans by 22%.
- The Reuters/Ipsos poll undersampled Democrats by 1%.
If we extrapolate the results based on the a similar turnout to 2016, we find the race a statistical tie for the popular vote.
Bottom line: Most 2020 polls continue to assume a turnout that is more favorable to Democrats vs. 2016. To this date, no poll has explained why they assume a different turnout. It appears they will continue to skew polls results by adjusting the sample pool.
When possible, we use the official election results to determine the 2016 turnout math. Otherwise we use Pew & CNN for more granular 2016 exit poll data.
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