Dems in Absolute Panic As Early Data Shatters Narrative in Key States

Up until this weekend, the Democratic victory narrative has been this: Dems will outperform in early and mail in voting. Republicans, leerier to mail-in voting, will opt for in person voting and will outperform on election day. However, in the end, the in-person voting will not be enough to overcome the massive early voting numbers by the Democrats.

This weekend that narrative shattered in some key states. It’s absolute panic.

Politico’s lead story today contains this revealing quote about many anxiety-ridden memos in Democratic offices:

“Democrats are poring over early vote totals, circulating anxiety-ridden campaign memos and bracing for a long two weeks.”

Michigan is chief among the Democrats’ worries. With 25% of the total vote in, compared to 2016, Republicans have a slim advantage heading into Election Day. It’s expected a rush of ballots from Republicans, leerier of mail voting, will be cast in-person on Nov. 3.

Michigan – Republicans have the early lead among early & mail-in voting:

With about 25% of the total Michigan votes in, Republicans outpace Democrats 40.2% to 38.3%.

Texas – Republicans shatter early voting expectations and it appears a blue Texas is gone:

Democratic Operative on Twitter: “I don’t understand how Dems are doing worse than 2016 in Texas in terms of early voting. Something is up.”

Twitter User Response: “The polls are way off–duh!”

(Read how pollsters skew the polls).

In Texas, the Republicans shatter all previous years, accounting for 50.6% of the total early vote, vs. 41% for Democrats.

As Democratic strategists pore over early numbers, a clear and unexpected trend is emerging: The lock-downs is suppressing the college vote. On college campuses across America, during a normal election year, many of the social events are tied to campaign events for mostly Democratic candidates. Not this year with COVID-19 lock-downs.

Also, a general complacency of an inevitable Biden win has gripped campuses. As it turns out, many college outreach initiatives have been cancelled in Michigan, including virtual rallies and door-to-door canvassing, due to Biden’s lead and concerns over social distancing. The result? College students have not turned out to vote, yet.

In, Philadelphia, home to Temple U, Drexel, UPenn and LaSalle Univ, the 18-29 vote has gone from 23.1% in 2016 to 12.5% in 2018, to 11.7% in 2020.

In Dane county, WI, home to UW Madison and one of America’s most liberal college towns, the 18-29 vote has declined from 8.0% in 2016 to 7.3% in 2020. This came as a big surprise. 27% of the total 2016 vote is already in, and the WI youth vote was expected to be energized.

In Durham county, NC, home to Duke & North Carolina State University, the 18-29 vote has actually declined from 15.8% in 2016 to 14.5% in 2020. In the entire NC state, the youth vote declined from 12.4% in 2016 to 9.4% now.

Deeper Problems for the Democrats than an Absent College Demographic

Cross-tab analysis suggests the problems are deeper than an absent college demographic. Key counties in Michigan have shifted red. Most notably, Kent and Oakland counties. With a half a million votes cast in Oakland county in 2016, overwhelming for Hillary Clinton, it’s nothing less than complete shock to see early voting highly favorable to Republicans. With 25% of the Michigan vote in, these results are absolutely terrifying to Democrats.

To be very clear: These numbers will not overcome the expected rush of ballots that Republicans, leerier of mail voting, will cast in person on Nov. 3. Even if we model the data using the most optimistic expectations for Democrats on Nov. 3rd, Republicans still outnumber in the end. This data runs counter to their narrative for victory. The data also suggests the polls are off–way off. Furthermore, 25% of the total data is a significant data set that cannot be dismissed easily. It’s a data set much larger than any Michigan poll.

It’s expected that Democrats will make a pivot to encourage in-person voting as soon as possible, communicate with operatives to not become complacent, and execute with a greater sense of urgency.

2016 Results, Oakland County
Current Results Based Off Early Voting 2020 Shows Oakland County Slight Republican

It’s absolute panic for Democrats.

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  1. Good news!!

  2. fantastic news!

  3. It would be extremely ironic if the lockdowns ended up severely hurting democrats.

  4. Republicans …….Get out, get ALL your friends and neighbors to vote !!!!!!!

  5. Democrats degrade the Americans and then they expect you to vote for them. All our sports teams become political and offend Patriots. And Democrats want you to vote for them. Democrats want to raise your taxes so government can spend our taxes foolishly. And Democrats want you to vote for them. Democrats have NEVER kept their promises to the American people. And Democrats want you to vote for them. HELL NO!

  6. Yes. Great news. I believe he’s ahead in Fl too 🤩🥳😁

  7. Can’t believe Trump would win by only 1or 2%. Don’t these people know how much the democrat rulers hate them? If you own guns, believe in God or don’t own a million dollar home that you paid another democrat 200k over market value you’re a deplorable.

  8. Anyone who votes Democrat does not love America.

  9. Reply
    Wendy C McBride Oct 19 at 8:55 pm

    Get out and vote early cause If 60% of Republicans all wait until NOV 3rd the Dems will create chaos to prevent voting !!!!!!!!!!!!! Electrical outages/increase in COVID cases so they cant open the polls and the latest is an Asteroid is coming right at us (per CNN) that may hit us Nov 2nd

  10. We ALL knew the polls were way off wrong!! I’m sure that Wolf Blitzer will be pooping himself when he’s reading vote results in a few weeks!

  11. Yes…..this is very good news….I had some anecdotal evidence about the shy Trump vote over the weekend…at…

  12. MICH probably more like +9% given the antic of crazy Gov. Whitmer.

  13. Reply
    Donna Chatman Oct 19 at 10:36 pm

    Could not be happier

  14. Reply
    Donna Sue Chatman Oct 19 at 10:37 pm

    Republicans get out and vote if you have to crawl

  15. Reply
    Catonsville Kid Oct 19 at 11:26 pm

    If you live in a state locked down by a Democrat governor and you can’t work, can’t go to church, and have to wear a mask everywhere you go…then you should vote R.E.D. (Replace Every Democrat) this election. Businesses burned down, windows smashed, people beat up with baseball bats and skateboards, Police officers shot, some fatally all thanks to Democrat funded groups like Antifa and BLM…and to top it all off, Nancy Pelosi (née D’Alesandro), as bad for our country as her family was for Baltimore, is holding families that are on the brink of economic collapse hostage so she can give billions of dollars to Mayors like DiBlazio and Garcetti who have ruined their cities with lockdowns. Love him or hate him, Trump has kept his promises to Black Americans, Hispanics, military members, and every tax paying American. Keep America Strong!

  16. Keep up the pressure, Republicans! We need to send Biden home packing! Vote early in person; the lines on Election Day will go for miles!

  17. Any idea how much of the democrat vote total will go to Trump? Remember the Trump rally in Minnesota last week—have if the attendees were not Republican and a clear 40% or so ( I think that’s right) we’re actually Democrats. So, I’m thinking not all of the early Dem votes will go to Biden. Michiganders—-what do you think??

  18. Boy, did you sum it all up in a tight bundle! Thank you.

  19. Dems are dumb.

  20. I am already thinking about next election. Who should we prepare to be next republican president

  21. No one has ever accused liberal Dimocrats of being geniuses.

  22. Don Trump Jr.2024

  23. It’s more than lockdowns the entire agenda of theirs is a joke

  24. North Carolina State University is in Wake County.
    North Carolina Central University is in Durham County.

  25. great! God bless Trump, God bless USA. Democrats are becoming like the Chinese communist party, USA is doomed if Democrats win.

  26. Democrats keep some promises, like when they say they’ll raise taxes.

  27. I live in North Carolina and can tell you enthusiasm for Trump is through the roof. GOP registration, early voting, signs in yards, on boats, docks, bumper stickers, etc. The only Biden signs here in Raleigh are near busy intersections that were put there by local Liberal groups. Most people I know are waiting to vote on election day but the hate filled lefties are crapping themselves.

  28. wow- says here Marquette is blue – you say it’ll flip ?

  29. LOL, and then the democrats stole the remaining states, then they stole michigan senate from john james, now theyre stealing house seats back and attempting to steal the senate as well.

    Good thing Barr waited 2 years to start prosecuting that deep state.

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