Susan Page Claim:
“Vice President Pence, your administration has been predicting a rapid and robust recovery, but the latest economic reports suggest that is not happening.”
FALSE
The economy is growing faster
than all projections.
The USA Has The Highest Growth Rate Among G7 Countries
In fact, “the U.S. economy entered this contraction on a healthier and more resilient footing than it did both prior to the Financial Crisis of 2008-09 and relative to other advanced economies” the Council of Economic Advisors wrote in a recent statement. “Additionally, thanks in part to growth-focused policy, the United States had the highest growth rate among the G7 countries prior to the pandemic, with growth roughly double the non-U.S. G7 average from when President Trump took office through to the end of 2019.”
Our economy undoubtedly would have taken a far bigger plunge but for its strength heading into the shutdown thanks to the Trump administration’s pro-growth economic policies.
Key Takeaways:
- Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week show economic expansion
- September’s jobs report shows the Great American Comeback is continuing, and President Trump is the man to lead it
- The economy added back a strong 661,000 jobs in September
- In total, the economy has added back more than 11.4 million jobs over the last five months, more than half of all the jobs lost due to the pandemic
- The unemployment rate fell to 7.9 percent, a level that just a few months ago economists said would not happen until the end of next year
The Recovery & Rebound
Minutes from the Federal Reserve Meeting
This week the Federal Reserve met and highlights robust economic expansion.
- In August, the components of retail sales used to estimate PCE, along with sales of light motor vehicles, increased further
- The consumer sentiment measure from the Michigan survey edged up in August
- Housing-sector activity continued to expand, likely supported by the effects of low interest rates
- Sales of both new and existing homes also rose substantially further. These measures of construction and sales were generally at or near their pre-pandemic levels
- Indicators of business fixed investment suggested that this sector was beginning to recover on balance. Nominal new orders and shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft increased in July, the third consecutive monthly increase in these indicators of business equipment spending
- Industrial production expanded further in July and August
Jobs
- 11.4 Million Jobs Have Been Recovered, More Than Half Of The Jobs Lost Due To The Pandemic
- Nonfarm Payroll Increased By 661,000 In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)
- In September, The Nation Gained 66,000 Manufacturing Jobs. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)
- In September, The Nation Gained 26,000 Construction Jobs. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)
- Nonfarm Payroll For Women Increased By 286,000 In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)
- Over The Last Three Months, Job Growth Has Averaged 1.3 Million Each Month. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, 10/2/20)
- In The Last 5 Months, The Economy Has Added Back 11.4 Million Jobs, More Than Half Of The Jobs Lost Due To The Pandemic. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)
- Unemployment Continues To Drop For Women, Black Americans, Hispanic Americans And Asian Americans
- The Unemployment Rate Decreased From 8.4 Percent To 7.9 Percent In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)
- The Adult Women’s Unemployment Rate Decreased From 8.4 Percent To 7.7 Percent In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)
- The Black Unemployment Rate Decreased From 13.0 To 12.1 Percent In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)
- The Hispanic Unemployment Rate Decreased From 10.5 Percent To 10.3 Percent In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)
- The Asian American Unemployment Rate Decreased From 10.7 Percent To 8.9 Percent In September. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Accessed 10/2/20)
- The Unemployment Rate Is Falling Faster Than Experts Predicted
- The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Projected That The Unemployment Rate For 2021 Would Be 10.1 Percent, And That It Would Only Decrease To 9.5 Percent By The End Of 2021. “The labor market is expected to improve after the third quarter, with a rebound in hiring and a significant reduction in furloughs as the degree of social distancing diminishes—leading to an increase in business activity and an increase in the demand for workers. In particular, the unemployment rate is projected to decline to 9.5 percent by the end of 2021. Under that projection, the unemployment rate at the end of 2021 would be about 6 percentage points higher than the rate in CBO’s economic projection produced in January 2020, and the labor force would have about 6 million fewer people.” (Phill Swagel, “CBO’s Current Projections Of Output, Employment, And Interest Rates And A Preliminary Look At Federal Deficits For 2020 And 2021,” Congressional Budget Office, 4/24/20)
- JPMorgan Projected That The Unemployment Rate Would Only Fall To 10.9 Percent By The End Of 2020. “Economists at the bank now peg their base-case scenario for unemployment at the end of 2020 at 10.9%, up from a prediction of 6.6% when it reported first-quarter earnings. That dimmed outlook comes as earlier-than-expected rehiring during May and June still left 20 million out of work, and as business reopenings are being rolled back in some regions.” (Lisa Bellfuss, “What JPMorgan’s Earnings Outlook Says About The U.S. Economy. Hint: It’s Not Great,” Barron’s, 7/15/20)
- JPMorgan Predicted Unemployment Would Still Hover Around 8 Percent At The End Of 2021. “More interesting is where JPMorgan sees the U.S. economy at the end of 2021. Unemployment will still hover around 8%, the bank says, and GDP will still contract—a call that contrasts with many other Wall Street firms expecting a return to growth next year.” (Lisa Bellfuss, “What JPMorgan’s Earnings Outlook Says About The U.S. Economy. Hint: It’s Not Great,” Barron’s, 7/15/20)
- Goldman Sachs Projected The Unemployment Rate Would Only Fall To 10 Percent At The End Of 2020 And Stay Above 8 Percent Through 2021. “Goldman Sachs expects the unemployment rate to stand around 10% at the end of 2020. For context, that matches the worst levels of the Great Recession. And even by the end of 2021, Goldman Sachs sees unemployment above 8%.” (Matt Egan, “Goldman Sachs Issues Warning About US Unemployment,” CNN, 5/13/20)
- The Federal Reserve Projected Unemployment Would Only Fall To 9.3 Percent By The End Of 2020. “Federal Reserve leaders predict a slow recovery for the U.S. economy, with unemployment falling to 9.3 percent by the end of this year and to 6.5 percent by the end of 2021, after tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs in the stunning recession caused by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.” (Heather Long, “Federal Reserve Predicts Slow Recovery With Unemployment At 9.3 Percent By End Of 2020,” The Washington Post, 6/10/20)
Paycheck Protection
- The Paycheck Protection Program has provided more than $521 billion in forgivable loans to over 5 million U.S. businesses, protecting more than 51 million U.S. jobs
- 159 million Americans have received a total of $265 billion in coronavirus relief payments, helping those Americans who are out of work or struggling
- The Paycheck Protection Program Has Provided $521 Billion To Over 5 Million U.S. Businesses, Protecting A Total Of More Than 51 Million Jobs. (“Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Report,” U.S. Small Business Administration, 7/31/20; “Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Report,” Small Business Administration, 6/30/20)
- There Has Been A Total Of $265 Billion In Coronavirus Relief Payments To 159 Million Americans. (News Release, “Treasury, IRS Deliver 89.5 Million Economic Impact Payments In First Three Weeks, Release State-By-State Economic Impact Payment Figures,” IRS, 7/17/20)