🚨 TRUMP WINS FLORIDA
Earlier
Earlier
- Most Democrat super-voters have cast their ballots in Florida
- Republicans have 3x more super-voters poised to vote on election day
- UPDATE: Florida Republicans storm the precincts on election day, EVISCERATING THE DEM LEAD
- URGENT: Twitter, Facebook, News Media plan to block Trump from declaring victory tonight (#WaitForIt campaign).
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CURRENT TALLY 4:40 PM - DEMOCRATS: 3905528 (37.40%)
- REPUBLICANS: 4081715 (39.09%)
- INDEPENDENTS: 2202098 (21.87%)
- DO NOT GET COMPLACENT – Make It Too BIG to RIG! WE NEED DECISIVE VICTORY AND EXTRA VOTES TO OVERCOME ANY FRAUD.
5, 4, 3, 2, 1… GO VOTE OR BRING PEOPLE TO VOTE.
So many Democrats have already voted-by-mail, their pool of eligible voters have dwindled as Republicans are expected to vote at a rate of 3:1 over Democrats on election day.
5:18 PM EDT UPDATE
This update doesn’t include Miami-Dade and Hillsborough. Both counties are trending RED on election day.
Florida Republicans +200,000 in Florida!
12 PM EDT UPDATE – GOP LEAD IS 93K
MAKE IT TO BIG TO RIG! KEEP VOTING!
11:20 AM EDT UPDATE
MAKE IT TO BIG TO RIG! KEEP VOTING!
11:00 AM EDT UPDATE
10:30 AM UPDATE
REPUBLICANS CONTINUE TO EXPAND THEIR LEAD AT A RATE OF 40K PER HOUR
10:00 am EDT Update 11/3/2020
9:40 am EDT Update 11/3/2020 – Dem lead in total votes (early vote + election day) destroyed!
9:20 a.m. EDT Update 11/3/2020
REMAINING MAIL IN VOTES UNLIKELY TO MATERIALIZE
First, on November 3rd, mail in ballots effectively become out of play. While people who requested a vote-by-mail ballot can still vote in person, they often face additional security procedures to swap a ballot. This commonly leads to additional time at the precinct–and historically, the swap from isn’t common. ALSO, people can drop off their vote by mail ballot. However, this doesn’t have very often.
For mail in ballots, the Democrats requested 800,000 more mail in ballots than Republicans in 2020. In 2016, the differential was flat.
Second, the Republicans had a net gain of about 150,000 new registrations over Democrats. This increases the pool of Republican votes.
Third, most analysts wrongly assume that if on 11/2/20, Democrats are leading by 200,000, it would be a toss up and if Democrats lead by more than 200k, Biden wins.
The key takeaway is that 800k+ D votes will no longer be available on 11/3, compared to 2016 (except the few that manually swap their ballot OR drop off their mail in vote at an eligible election site).
Early votes do not mean extra votes. This segment is statistically eliminated from voting on Nov 3rd for prediction purposes because they don’t historically transfer to votes.
Mail in ballots MUST be received by NOV 3rd in Florida. So it’s unlikely a huge swath of ballots will arrive on Nov. 3rd. In fact we can model that rate out.
We expect GOPers to vote at a 3:1 rate vs. Democrats on election day. This is what we are seeing. The data is confirming this prediction.
We can expect this all day. The fact the GOP closed the gap so early is GREAT NEWS for Trump.
Where are you getting your data from?
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
Live export, direct from FL
This site is pretty freaking cool. I had not seen this before until the link from CFP brought me here. Good to have another great source to bookmark. Kudos.
ditto