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IOWA Poll Stun Dems: Trump +7 — GOP Ernst Now in Lead for Senate — GOP Poised to Flip House Seat

Panic Grips Democrats

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Iowa is a bellwether indicator. The state often reflects how the rest of nation feels. In fact, they are the first state to run presidential primaries for this reason.

The trends coming out of the latest Iowa poll thrust many Democrats into panic. The poll suggests a mighty shift towards Trump/GOP — And is a preview of what the rest of the nation is doing given the dominate trends three-days before election day.

The Des Moines Register’s poll, the gold standard of Iowa polls, found:

Donald Trump over Biden by 7 points
The GOP is now on track to flip a house seat
GOP Senate candidate Joni Ernst Now Leading

President Donald Trump and Sen. Joni Ernst have opened up leads in their respective races in the battleground state of Iowa, according to the Des Moines Register’s final pre-election poll released Saturday.

Trump is leading Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the state by 7 percentage points, with 48 percent support from likely voters to Biden’s 41 percent.

But that’s not all, it appears Republicans are voting straight red and poised to flip House seats.

A Republican could be poised to win back one of the Iowa congressional districts that flipped to Democrats two years ago, and Republicans could claim the majority of the state’s four House districts, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

Statewide, 45% of likely Iowa voters prefer Republican candidates for the U.S. House, versus 39% of voters who prefer Democrats.

Trump Jumps Ahead of Biden in the RPC Average

The latest poll puts Trump ahead in Iowa, according to the RCP average of mostly Democratic-leaning polls.

Larger Trends 3-Days Before Election

But Biden faces an uphill battle against new trends in the electorate. And the tailwinds overwhelmingly favor Trump.

  1. Rural Vote: It appears rural voters are over-performing by 30% vs. 2016; and they are just starting to vote in mass. In the following map, the voters giving Trump the greatest advantage vs. 2016 are rural counties. The rural vote is under-estimated in the polls.

  2. Corruption: Most people are aware of the corruption claims against the Joe and Hunter Biden. The Biden’s have offered no explanation and maintain complete silence. This strategy makes voters uneasy. Voters want some explanation.
  3. Economy: Record breaking GDP numbers, shattering expectations.
  4. Lock Downs: Because Biden chose not run on his record, he relies on blaming Trump for COVID-19. However, COVID-19 ranks third on the list of voter’s concerns — and the majority want to open up their home state. Biden said he would shut the country down if the scientists told him to do so. People want to move on with their lives, now that we’ve flattened and reduced the COVID-19 death curve.
  5. Fracking/Oil: Voters are concerned about shutting down the oil industry. They prefer Trump’s plan that emphasizes technologies that can be applied at scale to improve refinement processes for cleaner output. They don’t want to shut down oil.  (Trump’s current approach seems to be working. CO2 emissions are at a 67-year low and the US leads the world in cutting emissions.)

Democrats in Panic

Nate Silver is trying his best to calm a panicked Democratic base.

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