Wisconsin Early Ballot Returns Show GOP Now Ahead 8-Points

With 1,624,770 ballots cast, the GOP leads the early vote in Wisconsin. 43% GOP to 35% DEM. About 60% of the estimated total votes for 2020 have been cast. In Wisconsin, you can register and vote the same day, so this is still a close race. The following data is derived from actual ballots cast.

The sample size is larger than any poll, and makes this a more accurate indicator of voting preference. This data does not account for specific demographics or segments of the electorate that still have to vote. In general, though, Republicans are more wary of casting mail-in votes, and are waiting for election day. If that assumption is correct, President Trump has the advantage in Wisconsin.

Data of Oct. 31, 2020: DEMs 35% REP 43%

Ballot Must Be Received by Nov. 3rd

The U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Monday declining to extend the absentee ballot deadline in Wisconsin was not a surprise to election officials, the vast majority of whom were operating under the assumption that ballots received after Election Day would not be counted. With less than a week before Election Day, officials are warning it might be too late to mail ballots back.

If a voter has requested or received an absentee ballot and has not returned it, they may still vote in-person during early voting or on Election Day.

Voters can bring their requested absentee ballots to their polling place and give it to a poll worker, City of Madison Municipal Clerk Heather Harris says. The poll worker can then void the ballot, often by simply tearing it in half.

Voters who’ve already filled out their absentee ballots at home but want to hand-deliver it to a polling place may do that, Magney said. Poll workers can accept ballots in-person and take it to be counted. 

Warning for DEMs: Youth Vote as a Percentage Collapses

Particularly worrisome for Democrats is the absence of the youth voters (18-29) as a percentage. Because voting is up 198% from this time in 2016, raw numbers show the youth vote up. In 2020, as a percentage of the electorate, 18-29 year olds cast only 5% of the total vote. In 2016, they were 17% of the electorate. This data suggests that young people are not showing up at the same rate in Wisconsin.

In other states like North Carolina, the youth vote is up in terms of raw numbers and percentages. However, the gains in the youth vote for North Carolina come from Republicans.

Polls Appear To Be Wrong

Republicans are expected to have a swell of voters cast ballots, as we approach November 3rd, 2020. In Wisconsin, this effect may be subdued since so many Republicans have voted early. However, the remaining poll of super-voters in Wisconsin remains split between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have the clear edge because they are currently up. But the race is far from over.

However, emerging evidence suggests that Trump supporters do not trust polls, and therefore, do not take their calls — especially when it requires a time commitment of at least twenty minutes.

While it appears that President Trump is on the cusp of victory in Wisconsin, this can only happen if Republicans continue to show up with the same vigor as they have up until this point. In other words, Trump has a very good chance of winning Wisconsin if Republicans do not get complacent.